The report, The Future of Driverless Haulage, found that when considering the anticipated cost savings across four cost categories (labour, fuel, insurance and vehicle utilisation), there would be an estimated £33.6bn of savings – and potentially as high as £47.5bn – after 10 years.
Furthermore, the study – undertaken in conjunction with Douglas McNeill, an independent financial analyst and expert in the transport and logistics sector – found that if these savings were passed onto consumers, this would equate to over half of a person’s weekly retail expenditure or almost one and a half weeks’ worth of groceries.
Driverless technology already occupies a prominent position within the motor manufacturing industry and if there are benefits to cars driving themselves, then the autonomous HGV has at least as much to contribute to society and as much to gain from the introduction of the technology to the haulage industry and society at large.
*Based on UK retail sales and adult population figures from the Office of National Statistics (£4bn of savings per year equates to £149.81 per UK adult (according to the ONS there are an estimated 26.7 million households in the UK)
Specifically savings would come in the following form:
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Labour savings would arise as driverless vehicles reduce the need for drivers;
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Fuel consumption savings would arise because computer controlled vehicles drive in a more efficient manner than those driven by people;
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Insurance savings would arise if driverless vehicles proved less accident-prone and insurers are able to pass on the benefit to the haulage industry in the form of lower premiums and;
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Vehicle utilisation savings would stem from the fact that driverless vehicles would be free from the restrictions of driver working hours.
As a result of these savings, the financial impact of introducing a significant number of driverless HGVs on the haulage industry will be between £19.5bn and £47.5bn over ten years, with total cost savings of £33.6bn over the ten year period being the base case assumption.
Almost every industry in the UK relies to some extent on transporting goods from one place to another and the cost of doing so is ultimately fed through to consumers. If the cost of haulage decreases dramatically as a result of driverless technology, it stands to reason that the cost of many goods will also fall. Comparing the potential savings to current UK retail expenditure after 10 years of driverless haulage vehicles delivering goods around the country, it is estimated that the annual savings from lower fuel, insurance and labour costs would amount to over half of a person’s weekly retail expenditure or almost one and a half weeks’ worth of groceries per annum.
Commenting on the research, David Williams, Head of Underwriting, at AXA UK, said:
“In commissioning this economic modelling, we wanted to discover the financial impacts of introducing driverless haulage fleets. The results confirmed our suspicion that automated freight will not only be much more efficient and make the roads safer for other users, it will also reduce the prices of the end products that we all buy.
“Autonomous vehicles can help reduce the needless number of lives lost through road traffic accidents caused by human error and assist in driving down fuel costs and consumption. HGVs alone were involved in 6,000 road accidents in 2013, comprising a total of 8,448 casualties, 258 of which were fatalities. These are preventable, human-error accidents and the introduction of driverless technology has the potential to transform the haulage industry, with significant implications for the UK’s roads, in terms of safety and congestion, for its environment, business and the UK economy as a whole.”
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