Investment - Articles - Investors’ Euro cheer unlikely to last


 Mike McCudden, Head of Retail Derivatives at Interactive Investor (www.iii.co.uk), gives his thoughts on the trading week so far:"It is not just the Scots that have battened down the hatches this week but investors too. Volumes have drifted lower from short term investors, with the risk of pronounced moves coming from the Eurozone proving too great. We are usually enjoying the Santa rally this time of year, and indeed we have seen a bounce, but this is no ordinary market as it appears to be continually on a knife edge.

 "Draghi has made another cut to rates but not the bold 50 basis point move many had been anticipating. The markets have largely been pricing in fiscal unification in the Eurozone this week but as we approach the end of the week nerves are shredded. Most traders don't want too much exposure going in to the weekend.

 "David Cameron has shown his diplomatic teeth by not agreeing to proposals around financial transactions which would have arguably made The City less competitive as a financial services powerhouse. This move was naturally applauded in the London markets.

 "So with the UK now off the discussion table the 17 member states have agreed to the Franco/German plan and taken their medicine for the good of the group. The Euro has responded well throughout Friday, rising against the dollar as many investors see a light at the end of the tunnel, but the move appears to be running out of steam.

 "Going in to next week, expect the hangover to kick in. Any excitement may quickly turn to despair as we realise this story has years to play out. Tough sanctions on rule breakers and hard hitting austerity measures, although needed, could trigger a long cold winter for the Eurozone.

 "It certainly won't be an easy ride for peripheral Eurozone members. Even though Greece managed to push through their austerity measures they can expect to be kicked out in the New Year. I suspect an example will be made.

 "In the coming months we will see if this new, sleeker, German engineered Eurozone has legs.

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