The research, which calculated each team’s probability of winning using the average odds of 25 betting houses, found that European nations collectively held a two thirds chance of winning, with Latin America almost one third. African teams have a collective 1.54% chance of winning the tournament.
Meanwhile, analysis into player values found that, collectively, France have the most valuable squad, with an estimated market value of £967m. Despite this, they are only the fourth most likely to win. The value of France’s squad is over one hundred times more than Panama (£8.49m), who play England in Group G on June 24, and are also the least likely team to win the tournament with a 0.07% chance.
While Manchester City and Real Madrid are the most represented club, with 15 players each, Barcelona have the highest market value of players appearing in Russia, providing £768m worth of talent to the tournament.
Duncan Fraser, Head of Sport at JLT Specialty, said: “Despite humiliation four years ago Brazil have bounced back and are now in a great position to walk away from Russia as champions. Whether they can replicate their pre-tournament form remains to be seen, and they will be up against stiff competition from the many European teams looking to cause an upset, including reigning champions Germany.
“Our analysis found that the value of players does not necessarily correlate with how likely a team is to win the tournament. Whoever lifts the trophy in July will need a combination of factors to go right for them, including form, fitness and luck.”
• New analysis reveals Brazil likely to emerge victorious in World Cup 2018
• Germany, Spain, France and Argentina make up the top 5
• Most valuable squad (France) only fourth most likely to win
• Barcelona contribute highest total player value (£768m) of any club represented at World Cup
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