English and Welsh death registration offices were notified of 505,675 deaths during 2013, Office for National Statistics data analysed by Towers Watson shows. This compares with 498,281 deaths registered during 2012.
2013 is the first year since 2008 when there were more than half a million deaths in England and Wales. More importantly, Towers Watson’s analysis suggests that it is also the second successive year in which ‘mortality rates’ – the proportion of people at each age who die – have not significantly improved.
Matthew Fletcher, a senior consultant at Towers Watson, said: “A growing and ageing population will experience more deaths unless the chance of dying at each age falls quickly enough to offset this.
“Although more people died in 2013 than in 2012, the number of deaths is consistent with mortality rates staying more or less the same. It looks as though there may have been a fractional improvement, of less than 0.1%. This is a long way short of the 2-3% annual improvements that were typical during the 1990s and 2000s.”
There were around 11,500 more deaths registered in the first six months of 2013 than during the same period in 2012 but around 4,100 fewer between July and December. The first half of 2013 included an unusually late cold period and a prolonged influenza season. Public Health England has previously found that influenza was a major factor behind the high number of deaths in the 2012/13 winter.
Matthew Fletcher said: “One of the things that a cold spell or ‘flu outbreak does is bring forward deaths that would otherwise have occurred over the following months, particularly amongst the frailest pensioners. This might be one reason why 2013 was a year of two halves for mortality.”
In 2012, there was no overall improvement in mortality rates for men, while female mortality rates actually got worse. 2013’s close-to-zero improvements make it the second successive year in which the actual number of deaths exceeded what had been anticipated by pension schemes and in official population projections.
Matthew Fletcher said: “When pension schemes next revisit their assumptions, an important question to consider will be whether what happened in 2012 and 2013 was just a blip or whether it could mark the end of an era of fast improvements in mortality rates.
“Mortality rates do not improve in a straight line - you have to average out the data from a number of years to see a clear picture. Previous interruptions to the recent trend of fast improvements have proved temporary and the rebound during the second half of 2013 provides at least some support for the idea that the weather was to blame for this one. However, the jury is still out on whether improvements can quickly catch up with where they were supposed to be.
“The further into the future you try to look, the more uncertain life expectancy becomes. We hear a lot about transformative medical breakthroughs but there are potential gamechangers in the other direction as well, with growing bacterial resistance to antibiotics being a particular concern.
“Many pension schemes and their sponsoring employers would rather know where they stand. We expect those who place a premium on certainty to continue exploring whether the risk of having to pay out pensions for longer than they are budgeting for can be passed to a third party at an acceptable price.”
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