By Weimeng Yeo, Head of Terrorism and Political Violence Analytics, Crisis Management and James Borrie, Head of Terrorism & Political Violence, GB from WTW
Threat of Sunni militant extremism
The global threat posed by Sunni militant extremists is expected to escalate in 2025, fueled by the destabilizing impact of the humanitarian crises in Gaza and southern Lebanon. These regions are becoming catalysts for radicalization, influencing similar groups worldwide and amplifying the potential for violence.
This amplification has already manifested in 2024, with several alarming plots uncovered in Europe. Notably, a high-profile attempt in Vienna targeted a Taylor Swift concert during the summer, underscoring the operational persistence of Sunni militant groups. Leading the list of threat groups is Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), the Afghan branch of the Islamic State (ISIS), which continues to focus on high-profile, mass-casualty attacks. This pattern is expected to persist into 2025.
Compounding the threat, groups affiliated with Al-Qaida and ISIS are exploiting new safe havens. For example, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria has left a power vacuum in the country, possibly enabling Sunni militia groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to gain dominance across Syria. This will turn the country into a sanctuary, mirroring past patterns where such nations became breeding grounds for extremist activities. These developments create an environment ripe for growth and expansion, signaling an elevated risk from Sunni militant extremist organizations in the coming year.
Escalation of state-sponsored terrorism
Geopolitical rivalries are expected to exacerbate the use of state-sponsored terrorism in 2025, with rival nations leveraging violence as a strategic tool. A potential shift in U.S. foreign policy—perhaps marked by a more confrontational stance against Iran—could trigger a wave of retaliatory attacks orchestrated by Iran’s proxy networks, such as Hezbollah.
These actions may target U.S. facilities, allies, or corporate interests, creating heightened tensions in the Middle East and beyond.
Geopolitical rivalries are expected to exacerbate the use of state-sponsored terrorism in 2025, with rival nations leveraging violence as a strategic tool.
Russia, another major player in state-sponsored terrorism, continues to operate with impunity. Moscow has a long history of covert operations, including assassinations of dissidents in Europe. In 2024, a particularly brazen incident involved placing explosives on a DHL cargo plane, underscoring Russia’s willingness to use terrorism as a tool for both intimidation and geopolitical mischief.
Technological advancements are also increasing these threats. Cyberwarfare tools enable state proxies to conduct sophisticated and deniable operations, ranging from advanced phishing to more pernicious infrastructure attacks. The rise of authoritarian politics and the weakening of international accountability mechanisms further embolden such states. As state-sponsored terrorism becomes increasingly normalized in global conflicts, its impact on the global terrorism landscape is likely to intensify.
Extremism fuels increasing violence
In 2025, the primary threat from terrorism is also expected to come from political extremists on both the far-right and far-left, who are increasingly operating in clandestine cells or as 'lone wolves.' These individuals are often harder to detect and prevent due to the decentralized nature of their operations.
On the far-right, white nationalist organizations and anti-government militias focus on divisive, symbolic attacks that fracture communities and target vulnerable groups. Their efforts, while not always aiming for high casualties, are intended to instill fear and amplify societal divisions.
Far-left extremists, such as those aligned with anarchist or radical environmentalist ideologies, by contrast, often pursue highly targeted attacks against specific individuals or institutions. Their operations frequently involve figures on the political right or entities associated with capitalism, climate change, and inequality. These groups favor tactics such as sabotage, assassinations, or direct action aimed at disrupting businesses and governments.
The decentralized nature of these groups makes them harder to track and disrupt. While many attacks may remain small-scale, the risk of escalation — particularly as isolated incidents inspire copycat attacks — cannot be ignored. Both sides feed off existing political and social tensions, creating a dangerous feedback loop that could lead to more frequent and severe acts of political violence in 2025.
Lone actors and new radicalization pathways
Lone actors represent one of the most unpredictable and evolving threats in 2025. Recent events, such as the assassination of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO in New York City, illustrate how societal, financial, and geopolitical upheavals can drive individuals toward radicalization. These factors, combined with the influence of online platforms, are enabling new motivations and ideologies to emerge.
The spread of terror tactics has empowered individuals, making it increasingly difficult to track and stop these lone-wolf attacks.
Technology has made it easier for lone actors to obtain resources, plans, and even weapons, often without detection. This has led to a more decentralized threat, where attacks are harder to prevent and predict. The spread of terror tactics has empowered individuals, making it increasingly difficult to track and stop these lone-wolf attacks.
Radicalization pathways are also diversifying, with issues ranging from environmental grievances to incel ideologies driving individuals toward violent extremism. This ideological shift calls for more nuanced and adaptive counterterrorism strategies that not only focus on prevention but also on understanding the core factors fueling lone-actor threats.
Implications for risk management and insurance
As the global terrorism landscape evolves, businesses must reassess their risk management strategies. Traditional or conventional policies may no longer cover decentralized threats, lone-actor violence, or state-sponsored operations. Companies need to work closely with insurers to tailor policies that address these emerging risks, including cyberterrorism and politically motivated attacks.
Enhanced risk analytics will also be critical. By leveraging intelligence and predictive models, organizations can better anticipate threats and implement proactive measures. Collaboration between businesses and insurers will be essential to maintaining resilience in an increasingly volatile world.
Conclusion
Terrorism risk in 2025 will be molded by multiple forces, from ideological extremism to geopolitical rivalries, making it critical for businesses to stay ahead of these threats. By adapting risk management strategies and insurance coverage to these emerging challenges, businesses can mitigate losses and ensure resilience. The ability to anticipate and respond to these threats will be critical in navigating the volatile environment ahead.
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