Throughout 2025, the Index has remained below £150,000, with the lowest mid-month figure also recorded in March. The main driver of this decline was a further increase in gilt yields, coupled with falling long term inflation expectations. Whilst the latter part of the quarter saw increased volatility in equity markets due to the initial US tariff announcements, the longer-term impact on the wider financial markets it yet to be seen.
A large jump was observed in XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index over March 2025, with an annualised rate of 21 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements. This is the first time the Index has surpassed an annualised rate of 20 members since July 2024, and reverses the downward trend that has been observed over the past few months. This uptick in transfer activity may indicate a growing confidence among members in choosing a pension transfer as a retirement planning option, despite the current market uncertainty.
In March 2025, 85% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service raised at least one scam warning flag, according to XPS Group’s Scam Flag Index. This represents a 7% decrease from the previous month, marking the largest single-month change since mid-2023. The Index fluctuated throughout the first quarter of 2025, but fell back to figures seen in previous months.
Helen Cavanagh, Senior Consultant, XPS Group, said: "Despite record-low transfer values, we saw an uptick in transfer activity in early 2025. Due to the ongoing uncertainty over tariffs and potential trade deals with the US, markets are likely to remain volatile late into this year. It is more important than ever that members fully understand their benefit entitlements and that they receive high quality independent financial advice when planning for their retirement, particularly if transferring is an option they are considering.”
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