The Actuarial Profession has carried out analysis of the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics and found no overall improvement in longevity in England and Wales, in 2012.
The total number of deaths in England and Wales in 2012 was 499,000, some 15,000 more than in 2011.
Put simply, this means that there have been MORE deaths last year than in any of the previous three years. For the combined male and female population, mortality worsened by 1% over the year. This compares with a 3.8% improvement in 2011. Observers, including policy makers and actuaries, will be interested to see if this trend continues in 2013 or if 2012 proves to be an anomaly year.
Another trend that has continued is that relatively, men continue to experience greater improvements in mortality than women. However, although the mortality ‘gender gap’ has reduced again, it is still significant, and despite the recent data women continue to have higher life expectancy than men.
Gordon Sharp of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Continuous Mortality Investigation said:
“Mortality rates can vary significantly on a year to year basis and it is important not to read too much into one year’s figures. However, as policy makers continue to look for solutions to the challenges faced by an ageing population, it continues to be important to ensure that mortality figures and trends are properly analysed.”
“Over the last 20 years we have seen unprecedented improvements in mortality rates, particularly for pensioners. These figures are initial estimates for 2012, and are subject to revision once ONS publish updated population estimates for the year. So whilst we are able to say that the mortality improvement for 2012 has been close to zero for men (0.2%), and that mortality for women worsened by 2.0%, (which compare with average male and female rates of improvement of 2.8% p.a. and 2.2% p.a. respectively over the 10 years to 2011), it is too early to say if this is a long term trend.
“This year it is particularly older ages (above 75 for men and above 65 for women) which have seen a worsening of mortality rates, in contrast to recent experience. ONS last year announced reductions in the estimated numbers of very old people in the population, which is changing estimates of mortality rates at high ages (above 85), but these figures show a genuine worsening of mortality for many of the over-65s.”
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