2002–2011 Estimates of the Very Old (including Centenarians) for England and Wales are published today. These estimates provide annual mid year estimates by sex and single year of age for persons aged 90 to 104 and for the 105 and over age-group for England and Wales as a whole.
2011 estimates are published for the first time today, while estimates for 2002 to 2010 are revised. The timetabling of this release is later than usual in order to take account of the impact of rebasing of population estimates from 2002-2010 in line with the results of the 2011 Census.
This release does not include estimates for the United Kingdom, as corresponding figures are not available for Scotland and Northern Ireland at this time. Estimates for the UK will be produced by Winter 2013 / Spring 2014.
ONS publishes Mid Year Estimates (MYE) of the population for England and Wales and for the UK by single year of age up to age 89 and for the 90 and over age group. To provide users with a consistent set of age estimates by single year of age up to age 105 and over the Estimates of the Very Old (including Centenarians) series is constrained to the 90 and over totals in the MYE.
Estimates of the Very Old for England and Wales and for the UK were formerly named Estimates of the Very Elderly. The name has been changed to reflect concerns that the term ‘elderly’ has negative connotations.
Background
Interest in population estimates at the oldest ages by single year of age has increased as life expectancy has risen and the number of those aged 90 and over has grown.
Until 2006 the Government Actuary’s Department calculated population estimates for single years of age beyond 90 for each of the UK countries. Although these estimates were made available for research purposes, they were not officially published. Since 2006 these estimates have been produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In 2007, in recognition of increased user demand for population estimates at the oldest ages by single year of age, ONS began to publish estimates of the 90 and over age group by single year of age for persons aged 90 to 104 and for the 105 and over age-group for England and Wales as experimental statistics. Since 2010 ONS has also published these estimates at UK level.
In 2011 the estimates were assessed by the UK Statistics Authority and have since been published as National Statistics.
Uses and Users of Estimates of the Very Old (including Centenarians) Within ONS, Estimates of the Very Old are primarily used in the production of national interim life tables and National Population Projections. Other uses include:
• answering parliamentary questions,
• responding to media interest, and
• responding to customer queries.
External uses include:
• formulating or assessing future policy on pensions and health care (including work by the Department for Work and Pensions, the Department of Health, and HM Treasury), and
• research by demographers, actuaries, medical researchers and others interested in population
estimates at the highest ages.
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