2022 saw gilt yields rise by c. 3% resulting in a 35% reduction in the value of pension scheme liabilities.
As a result, many UK pension schemes moved into a surplus position for the first time since aggregated records began, leading more schemes to consider buyouts.
Pension schemes are seeing surpluses despite typical asset portfolios falling by c.20%; a large part of this fall reflected hedging of liability, but equity markets also struggled and credit suffered as the threat of inflation and tighter monetary policy loomed over much of the year.
The UK liability-driven investment (LDI) market saw upheaval in September and October as collateral calls caused huge liquidity pressures on pension schemes; this has resulted in LDI managers bringing in tighter controls which will affect how capital-efficient schemes can be going forwards.
UK pension schemes’ funding positions have improved by a huge margin of £400bn over the year to 20 December 2022 against long-term funding targets. Based on assets of £1,456bn and liabilities of £1,394bn, the aggregate funding level of UK pension schemes on a long-term target basis was 104% as of 20 December 2022. This represents an increase of just under 20% during 2022.
Following a year of significant volatility, long-term gilt yields ended the year c.3% higher than they were at the start. Inflation also proved a source of considerable impact for some schemes. The sharp rise in observed inflation combined with caps applying to benefits meant some pensioners income began to fall behind the rising cost of living. But in general schemes were relatively protected as long-term inflation levels, while fluctuating during the year, ended the year only slightly higher than they started and therefore have not significantly impacted funding levels.
Tom Birkin, Actuary at XPS Pensions Group said: “From February’s shock Russian invasion of Ukraine to the gilt market meltdown in October, 2022 has been a year of seismic market movements – and the upshot for pension schemes is that most find themselves in a much healthier position than they were at the start of the year.
With more schemes in surplus and insurer premiums now looking more affordable than ever, lots of schemes will be contemplating buyout to lock-in the huge gains they have achieved during 2022. On the supply side, the UK bulk annuity market appears to be gearing up for a record year with unprecedented demand from pension schemes seeking to secure the long-term future for their members”.
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