Life - Articles - Rise in death rates during 2020-21 worst since World War II


During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor.

 The latest update cover week 52 of 2021 (25 to 31 December) and the fourth quarter of 2021, based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 11 January 2022.

 The key points of these updates are:
 • Mortality for 2021 as a whole has been 6.9% higher than 2019, but 5.7% lower than in 2020.
 
 • There is a striking difference in how mortality rates compare to 2020 at different ages – while mortality for ages 65+ has been 7.1% lower than in 2020, mortality for under-65s is around 3.1% higher than in 2020.
 
 • There have been around 120,400 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 31 December 2021. Of these, 72,900 occurred in 2020 and 47,500 in 2021.
 
 • The numbers of excess deaths in 2021 have varied significantly by quarter, with 34,300 more than expected in the first quarter, 9,900 fewer than expected in the second quarter, 10,900 more than expected in the third quarter, and 12,200 more than expected in the fourth quarter.

 • Mortality in each week of the second half of 2021 has been higher than in the corresponding week of 2019.

 The CMI has carried out further analysis to put figures for 2020 and 2021 into historical context:
 • While mortality can be volatile from year to year, we tend to see falls in mortality over time and it is rare to see mortality in a year being higher than the preceding five-year average. That happened in 2020 and 2021, but only twice in the preceding fifty years.
 
 • Taken together, mortality for the two year period 2020-21 is 5.5% above the 2015-19 average. It is unusual to see two consecutive years so far above the preceding five-year average – we have to go back to 1940-41 to find a period as unusual as 2020-2021 on this measure.

 Deaths registered in week 52 are affected by public holidays, when register offices are typically closed and some registrations will be delayed. Figures for this week are not directly comparable to other weeks:
 • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 52 of 2021 was 731 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 52 of 2019; equivalent to 9% more deaths than expected.
 
 • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 582 in week 52 of 2021.

 Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “Although weekly excess mortality in the second half of 2021 hasn’t been nearly as high as the peaks of earlier waves, it has been persistent. This has led to nearly as many excess deaths in the second half of 2021 as in the first half.

 Taken together, 2020-2021 has been a remarkable two-year period, with a greater increase in mortality than we have seen since World War II.”

 All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.
  

Back to Index


Similar News to this Story

IPT receipts hit over GBP1 billion in November 2024
According to this morning’s HMRC data, Insurance Premium Tax (IPT) receipts reached £1.2 billion in November 2024, bringing the eight-month 2024/25 to
Healthy life expectancy data hint at post pandemic recovery
New figures published last week by ONS show Healthy Life Expectancy for younger age groups is lower than a decade ago although older ages have seen a
Treatments through PMI hit record in first half of the year
Over seven in 10 of all private health treatments are now being funded via PMI. Record H1 in 2024 for PMI-funded health admissions as employers expand

Site Search

Exact   Any  

Latest Actuarial Jobs

Actuarial Login

Email
Password
 Jobseeker    Client
Reminder Logon

APA Sponsors

Actuarial Jobs & News Feeds

Jobs RSS News RSS

WikiActuary

Be the first to contribute to our definitive actuarial reference forum. Built by actuaries for actuaries.