Media and Cal Fire report at least ten thousand structures lost, with tens of thousands more still under threat. Ten fatalities have been reported thus far. These numbers will evolve as damage assessment efforts continue. Smoke and infrastructure disruption remain ongoing concerns with hundreds of thousands displaced due to lost homes and evacuations.
Extreme winds have relaxed somewhat allowing firefighters to make some headway. However, gusty winds have continued to maintain the threat of extreme fire spread. Some relaxation of winds is expected today with intermittent wind activity over the weekend.
Another strong offshore wind event will threaten the area early this week. These strong and gusty dry winds will again enable extreme fire spread for existing fires as well as fresh ignitions or spot fires.
Wildfire Activity as of the Morning of January 10
Extreme fire spread continues to threaten communities in and near the Los Angeles Metro area as of the morning of January 10. At least ten fatalities have been confirmed, with an estimated 10,000 structures lost according to media reports and Cal Fire. Both residential and commercial properties have been affected, with entire neighborhoods levelled as evident from media, including the Pacific Palisades community. On Thursday evening a new fire, the Kenneth Fire grew at extreme rate, affecting the San Fernando Valley near a school currently sheltering evacuees. The Kenneth fire expanded to 960 acres in a matter of hours and was brought to 35 percent containment as of Friday morning.
The Palisades and Eaton fires continue to burn and are now among the top five most destructive wildfires in recorded California history. Wildfire activity this week has affected at least 55 square miles of land. Despite the ongoing fire spread firefighters have been able to make some headway as wind conditions have relaxed somewhat from earlier this week.
Smoke and air quality continue to remain a concern. The water supply continues to come under duress, and media reports indicate contamination of the drinking water supply in the area including the Pasadena region. Power outages have affected at least 420,000 customers. Airlines also report possible disruption due to both wind conditions as well as smoke issues. Many schools remain closed in the affected area, with schools away from immediate threat being used for temporary shelter. Certain studios in the area have paused production, and some professional athletic events in the area have either been rescheduled or relocated.
Palisades Fire
As of Friday morning, CalFire reports that more than 5,000 structures have been destroyed in the Palisades Fire and 19,978 total acres have burned. Fire activity remains most active on the northern perimeter, particularly in the top of Mandeville Canyon Watershed between Mulholland Drive Trail and Vincente Mountain Park. Efforts to contain the fire are underway, with bulldozers working between Gizmo Peak and Topanga, supported by air tankers and helicopters. Fortunately, the fire has not moved toward Santa Monica. Wind gusts up to 40 MPH are expected to continue through Friday, with conditions expected to calm over the weekend. However, there is a high likelihood of critical fire weather conditions persisting into next week, as another moderate Santa Ana Wind event is anticipated.
Eaton Fire
As of Friday morning, the Eaton Fire remains active and has grown to 13,690 acres. The fire remains 0 percent contained, despite firefighting efforts. During a press conference Thursday afternoon, it was reported that 4,000-5,000 structures have been destroyed and 37,438 structures remain at risk. Fire activity is concentrated on the northern perimeter, into the San Angeles Forest and Mountains. Critically dry fuels will continue to exacerbate fire conditions, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect through at least Friday evening. Winds are expected to relax over the next 24 hours, moderating fire behavior over the weekend. There is a chance of critical fire weather developing over the weekend and early next week, as winds are forecasted to pick up in speed.
Weather Conditions
• Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain active for portions of Southern California today per the U.S. Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Red flag warnings have been temporarily discontinued as wind conditions improve per the National Weather Service (NWS). An air quality alert remains active due to ongoing smoke concerns. Specifics can be found at www.weather.gov and www.spc.noaa.gov.
• According to the NWS Los Angeles office, moderate Santa Ana wind conditions should continue through the morning with general expected wind gusts of around 55 MPH, with higher gusts possible in the mountains and foothills near the LA Metro region. Winds are expected by the NWS to quickly subside today around noon local time, which should reduce rates of extreme fire spread in the area and allow firefighters to make some headway. Another moderate Santa Ana event is probable for late morning to early afternoon on Sunday.
• Another strong offshore wind event is expected to develop next week with peak winds expected on Tuesday. This will amplify the threat for extreme fire spread. Factors in play include another high-pressure area over the Great Basin following passage of a weather disturbance; this will force a strong offshore flow from the northeast with dry gusty winds.
• Dry conditions are expected to persist through at least the middle of next week, if not longer which will maintain the threat of extreme fire spread throughout the period, both for existing and spot fires as well as fresh ignitions. Another weather system may bring some very light rain for later next week although expected amounts are deemed trivial by the NWS.
Statements from official emergency management agencies supersede this update and should be closely followed concerning matters of personal safety.
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