But, according to LCP partner Helen Abbott, the consequences of rising interest rates will vary considerably from firm to firm and trustees need to ‘get under the skin’ of what rising borrowing costs may mean for their sponsor.
Key issues for companies include:
The rising cost of borrowing will come on top of other cost pressures such as rising energy bills and supply chain issues; if debt has to be ‘refinanced’ at a much higher rate and/or with greater restrictions, this could be the last straw for some firms;
Current market conditions come off the back of a series of interventions by the Government to support firms through the Covid pandemic; in some cases, businesses will already be carrying additional debt incurred during the pandemic, and they may already be at the limit of the debt that they can service;
The reaction of banks will be key; where firms are struggling to meet repayments – or will struggle to meet increased debt servicing costs – banks will need to decide whether to ‘pull the plug’ or exercise forbearance in the hope that the situation will improve; the attitude of the banks and their expectations of the future state of the economy could be critical for many firms.
Some firms will be cushioned from the immediate impact of rate rises where their debt is largely in the form of bonds which will usually be at fixed rates. Maturity dates on bonds are usually spread to avoid refinancing cliff edges, but at each refinancing the situation could get tighter.
Where firms rely more heavily on bank lending this is more likely to be on a floating rate, in particular working capital facilities which might now be needed more heavily, so any increase in rates would feed through to the bottom line relatively quickly. Where firms have had fixed term bank lending to tide them over the pandemic, many may be coming for renewal around now, and banks may be reluctant to offer decent fixed rate terms at the moment given the uncertainty about the interest rate outlook.
LCP point out that the tightness in financial markets has led to a big reduction in M&A activity in the last six months and this could lead to negative outcomes for firms who might not survive without some form of restructuring.
Commenting, Helen Abbott, partner at LCP said: “Rising borrowing costs are bad news for corporate Britain, but the impact on individual firms will vary considerably. For some sponsors of company pension schemes, these increased costs come off the back of other costs pressures as well as debts arising from the Pandemic. Increased debt servicing costs could be the final straw. For other firms, the impact may be less immediate, especially if some of their financing is via corporate bonds which will only need refinancing on a gradual basis. For many businesses it will be the attitude of the banks which are key. Trustees need to stay close to their sponsors during these turbulent times and make sure they have a thorough understanding of how the rising cost of servicing debt will impact the strength of the employer covenant”.
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