Nine developed economies (Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Ireland and Norway) are all rated at increased risk. Many of these rises are largely due to increased terrorism threats, most of which stem from the rising influence of Islamic State (IS) as well as the ongoing threat from Al-Qaeda affiliates and supporters.
Top risks for business include increased terrorism threats across developed economies, and a progressively uncertain and dangerous geopolitical environment, where the risk of armed conflict is growing amid changing and unstable regional balances of power.
Scott Bolton, Director, Business Development and Network Relations at Aon Risk Solutions said,
“The Aon Terrorism and Political Violence map is a key analytical source which helps our clients understand terrorism risk exposures across the globe. It is interesting that Europe is at significantly greater risk from the rise of the Islamic State. Businesses need to understand how they can mitigate against this risk in affected countries as well as build terrorism insurance programmes that align more closely with their exposure.”
The map shows a mixed picture, with a net reduction on country risk ratings worldwide, but with political violence and terrorism risks concentrating and intensifying around a smaller number of countries. The risk rating was reduced in 21 countries and increased in just 13. The global picture is also one of marked polarity, with clusters of concentrated risk across South Asia (namely Afghanistan and Pakistan), North Africa and the Middle East.
Commenting on the findings, Henry Wilkinson, Head of Intelligence & Analysis at The Risk Advisory Group, says: “This data highlights that terrorism and geopolitical uncertainty are risks that businesses cannot ignore - and they are as relevant to developed economies as to emerging markets. In a hyper-connected world faraway problems can affect local threats and political violence can spread rapidly with little warning. However a high level of risk doesn’t automatically mean that these areas are closed for business.
Companies can exploit the opportunities in any market with high quality intelligence and analysis, and a strategy to navigate and manage the risks.”
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